Perhaps more than any major professional sport, the NHL is dominated by rumors. MLB has it’s share, but because of their convoluted rules on personnel moves in the offseason and the lack of draft pick trades their level of gossip is severely limited. The NFL has all sorts of personnel rumors, but they’re mostly centered around the draft and after that the trade talk all but dies. In the NBA there are relatively few trade talks because of the restrictions on moving salary in their salary cap model.

But in the NHL, rumors run rampant…and fans simply can’t get enough. Ask most die-hard fans and they’ll tell you that one of the best days of the season is trade deadline day, when players move quicker than an Al MacInnis slapshot and franchises are built or torn apart in literally minutes.

But how often do the rumors of a trade end up being reality?

The truth is not often…in fact that’s an understatement. It’s almost never.

When it comes to player movement information, there are only 2 possible options:

-It’s real.

-It’s not real.

So how do you weed out the bad and listen to the good?

What’s more and more interesting is how good NHL front offices have become at managing information and using the media for their own good.

When it comes to divulging information about true pending moves, it does zero good for a team to let that information out to the public…so what do they do? They can completely control who gets what information, and the public thirst is insatiable. The mere threat of cutting someone off is enough to keep them from disclosing anything that shouldn’t be.

What they do is spread disinformation. They use the media and people with “inside sources” to release the information that’s safe to discuss or actually help their cause.

Don’t agree? Do you think it’s coincidence that the Blues brought Eric Lindros into town for a much publicized physical and then traded for Keith Tkachuk almost immediately afterwards? Do you really think that Lindros wasn’t a bargaining chip to strike a better deal with Phoenix?

Guys in our own town like John Hadley and Andy Strickland are perfect examples. Like all hockey reporters, they often discuss certain transactions that don’t make sense and ultimately don’t go anywhere…so the question becomes this: Do they have sources or don’t they?

Even the biggest critics of hockey writers have to admit that they do have inside sources. They can’t make up all of the deals that they write about, and once in a while they hit on a rumor. It seems obvious to me that they do in fact have people with direct knowledge of the situation at hand…but even then their success rate hovers somewhere in the neighborhood of the chances of winning the powerball…and being struck by lightning…while pitching a perfect game.

They’re not going off on their own and making up stories. They’re getting the info from somewhere, so then the question becomes “How good are their sources?”. You might want to believe that their sources are awful and that the sources probably make everything up…but sticking with guys that you can’t verify are attached to the power teat is awfully career limiting.

Most reporters have good sources. The sources have good information. The great information hoax starts when the sources decide what information to share and what to change for their purposes.

The perfect example of such was Andy Strickland’s article about Brandon Sutter yesterday. This article was misinterpreted by many as a “warming up to the guy the Blues are after” piece…but if you notice, not a single St. Louis Blues source is cited in the article. He does mention that St. Louis is one of the three teams “extremely interested” in him, but the source remains anonymous (the other two teams mentioned were Carolina at pick #11 and Columbus at pick #7)

Keep in mind that this is not a case of tampering because he’s a prospect waiting to be drafted.

There are 2 consequences for the source allowing his name to be on record: 1. it adds credibility to the story and 2. reveals the intentions of the Blues….but the downside of having your name attached is that the source would directly lose credibility once the information proves to be false. By remaining anonymous they can release that information and let other GMs believe that if they want Sutter that they’ll have to move up to 8 or higher to get him…which is only advantageous IF they DON’T want Sutter. The best part is that they never release who the info came from, and because of that their credibility as a source is never in question.

The minute I read the Strickland article I though to myself: Well then it’s 100% sure that they don’t draft Sutter. They didn’t want him…and not only was I right, it was very interesting how it played out, especially in light of John Davidson’s comments as reported by Jeremy Rutherford

“Blues President John Davidson said the Blues offered the Chicago Blackhawks pick Nos. 9, 24 and 26 to move up to No. 1 overall. The Note would have taken forward Patrick Kane, who ended up going to the Hawks. They also tried to move up to No. 3 and No. 4, but to no avail.

"We tried," Davidson said emphatically.”

And later in the article :

“Winger Jakub Voracek became the Blues' top target after being turned away by the top teams in the draft. Blues officials wore disappointed faces when the hometown Columbus Blue Jackets took him with the No. 7 pick two spots ahead of the Blues' first pick at No. 9.”

Here’s how the draft played out:

-Blues try to move up to top 4 but get turned away.

-They focus on Voracek, who they obviously liked before the draft (but never tipped local reporters onto doing a fluff piece about him)

-Voracek is then picked by Columbus at #7, two picks before the Blues…interesting to note that Columbus was one of the two teams “extremely interested” in Sutter (sounds to me like disinformation coming from Columbus as well…which probably steered the Blues away from trying to trade up to assure that they could land Voracek)

-Blues have the chance to pick Sutter, but pass, instead moving down 4 spots and picking up a later pick.

-Carolina (the third team that was “extremely interested”) picks Sutter 11th overall, which is higher than his average position and average adjusted position on our mock draft composite piece.

The fact of the matter is that the Blues had the chance to pick Sutter and passed.

Here’s my theory: The Blues used Strickland to try and prod Columbus into picking Sutter @ #7 instead of Voracek…it just so happens that Columbus beat them at this game and instead convinced the Blues that they would let a better prospect (Voracek) drop while they chased Sutter.

You might or might not believe in this thinking at this point, but next time you hear a rumor, realize that there is always a motive when you release information. Which makes more sense: just educating your fans at the possible cost of the franchise, or using the media to mislead other franchises who read the same information as you and me.

For fun, we’ve started an official rumors thread in the forum…to track who mentions the rumor, what the rumor is, and how it turns out.
Check it out in our forums HERE



Sources:

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=8132

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/blues/story/1197A99C55F746EF8625730300158EAA?OpenDocument

http://est1967.com/nhl_news/est1967.com_mock_draft_analysis.html

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