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Est1967.com Mock Draft Analysis PDF Print E-mail
Written by BringBackZezel   
Thursday, 21 June 2007

Everyone had their own Mock Draft. We were going to come up with our own as well, but decided it was a bit cliche, so instead we're going to analyze other drafts, in particular picking 10 and doing a statisical analysis on where the players fall.

In doing this we looked at 10 drafts from various websites and only looked at the first round of the draft. We found 49 overall players that were picked as 1st round picks, with only 15 being picked in all 10 mocks.

Each player is assigned a draft place, then the places are added up, divided by the number of drafts and an average draft position number is calculated. Of course with only 15 players appearing in all 10 drafts, we needed to decide how to account for those drafts where a player didn't appear. For those we assigned a value of 31, or one more than the last position in the 1st round of the draft. For instance, Brandon Sutter appeared in 8 of our 10 mock drafts. In the 8 drafts in which he appeared, he had an average draft position of 14.38. But because he didn't appear at all in 2 other drafts, he earned 62 extra draft positions in his overall draft total, dropping his average position down to 17.7.

This means that we're really estimating where players will be drafted in the 1st round, not where they'll be drafted overall.

Without further ado, here are the rankings:

Position Player Adjusted Average Position Average Position High Low Number of Times Listed
1 Patrick Kane 1.1 1.10 1 2 10
2 Kyle Turris 2.6 2.60 1 6 10
3 James vanRiemsdyk 2.9 2.90 2 4 10
4 Karl Alzner 4.6 4.60 3 7 10
5 Jakub Voracek 5.3 5.30 2 7 10
6 Sam Gagner 6.1 6.10 3 9 10
7 Alexei Cherepanov 7.1 7.10 4 12 10
8 Keaton Ellerby 9.9 9.90 7 18 10
9 Logan Couture 10.2 10.20 8 13 10
10 Angelo Esposito 11 11.00 6 22 10
11 Ryan McDonagh 12.1 12.10 7 19 10
12 Nick Petricki 14 14.00 7 16 10
13 Zach Hamill 14.4 14.40 9 23 10
14 Kevin Shattenkirk 15 15.00 10 21 10
15 Brandon Sutter 17.7 14.38 9 n/a 8
16 Mikael Backlund 19.1 17.78 8 n/a 9
17 Max Pacioretty 19.9 19.90 13 28 10
18 Maxim Mayorov 21 19.89 13 n/a 9
19 Jon Blum 21.6 20.56 9 n/a 9
20 Mark Katic 22 18.14 14 n/a 7
21 Alex Plante 22.3 20.13 14 n/a 8
22 Lars Eller 22.4 20.25 12 n/a 8
23 William Sweatt 22.9 20.88 16 n/a 8
24 Colton Gillies 23.2 22.33 15 n/a 9
25 David Perron 23.6 21.75 15 n/a 8
26 Oscar Moller 24 22.25 18 n/a 8
27 Thomas Hickey 24.5 21.71 16 n/a 7
28 Logan MacMillan 25.4 21.67 11 n/a 6
29 Brett MacLean 26.8 24.00 20 n/a 6
30 Ian Cole 27.5 22.25 17 n/a 4
Tommy Cross 28 25.00 21 n/a 5
Stefan Legein 28.5 22.67 18 n/a 3
Joakim Andersson 28.5 24.75 17 n/a 4
Michal Reptik 29.5 27.25 23 n/a 4
Riley Nash 29.6 17.00 17 n/a 1
James O'Brien 29.8 25.00 25 n/a 2
Akim Aliu 30 27.67 27 n/a 3
Simon Hjalmarsson 30 21.00 21 n/a 1
TJ Brennan 30.2 23.00 23 n/a 1
Kevin Veilleux 30.3 27.50 25 n/a 2
Dana Tyrell 30.4 29.00 29 n/a 3
Kevin Marshall 30.5 28.50 27 n/a 2
Nico Sacchetti 30.5 26.00 26 n/a 1
Nick Ross 30.6 27.00 27 n/a 1
Jeremy Smith 30.7 28.00 28 n/a 1
Brendan Smith 30.7 29.50 29 n/a 2
Zack Torquato 30.9 30.00 30 n/a 1

As most have predicted, the only sure things seem to be Kane, Turris and vanRiemsdyk @ the top, with Alzner and Voracek most likely rounding out the top 5.

Interpret as you wish....I just thought it would be interesting.

Discuss it HERE on our Forums!!


Oh and for those of you wondering where the information came from:

MyNHLDraft: http://www.mynhldraft.com/2007
ESPN: http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/draft2007/news/story?id=2908675
MSNBC: http://www.msnbc.com/modules/sports/nhldraft/mockdraft.asp
TSN: http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature/?fid=11084&hubname= and http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature/?fid=11054&hubname=
Sportsnet: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/article.jsp?content=20070619_102634_4476
NHL Draft Buzz: http://nhldraftbuzz.blogspot.com/2007/05/2007-draftbuzz-mock-draft-1.html
Red Line Report :http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/2007-06-20-mock-draft_N.htm
Fox Sports: http://msn.foxsports.com/nhl/story/6920980
Sports Illustrated: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/allan_muir/06/19/mock.draft/index.html
Hockeys Future: http://hockeysfuture.com/articles/9754

I'd also like to give a special thanks to CheeseSteakDude at http://cheesesteakdude.wordpress.com/ who picked out some of the sources for the study.
Last Updated ( Friday, 22 June 2007 )
 
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