Trying Times, a Pythagorean Update and a Great Website!These are trying times for Blues fans.
Despite some recent success, the offense has returned to 05-06 levels. To top things off, the Blues had an uninspired trade deadline, with acquiring neither high draft choices, nor anyone worth mentioning in the Blues long term plans. Fans can accept if their team is bad, especially if the franchise is headed in the right direction…but the last week has many questioning the direction of this bad team.
Andy Murray seems to be thrilled with the idea of retarding the youth movement by restricting Erik Johnson's ice time (despite him often being the Blues best defenseman), and sitting David Perron in the pressbox. I can't want to see how he treats prospects like T.J. Oshie, Patrik Berglund, Lars Eller, and Ian Cole when this team is forced to rely on cheap youngsters.
Larry Pleau basically gave away long time Blue Bryce Salvador for Cam Janssen, who despite his reputation as an energy guy and a fighter has managed to dress only 95 games in a 3 year NHL career, amassing a grand total of 1 point (and only 205 PIMs). This was on the same day when players like Adam Foote are dealt for a 1st round pick AND a conditional 4th rounder. If you've watched Adam Foote play recently, you'd know that he's a shadow of his former self, and is no better than Salvador this season. Both Salvador and Foote are UFAs at season's end and Foote makes more than 3 times Salvador's current salary. Do I think Salvador is worth as much as Foote….no, but you can't tell me that Salvador couldn't fetch at least a 2nd rounder in return. In a draft being called the deepest in at least a decade, that 2nd rounder is worth much more in the long run than Cam Janssen.
The Blues also signed Barret Jackman to a 4 year, $14.4m deal. I'll be the first to admit that this contract could turn out to look like a bargain. I've seen Barret Jackman play outstanding defense and really control his own end….but that's in years past, mostly when he was playing next to a certain HOF defender. What if I were to tell you that a team already handcuffed by a 4 year, $16m contract to a mediocre Jay McKee has just signed an average sized defenseman who has chronic shoulder issues that has caused him to miss 98 games over the past 3 seasons, and who's only effective style of play is physical, which is exactly what has landed him in the trainer's room so much to a $3.6m/yr contract? You'd say that's a pretty dumb move. The guy's won a calder trophy, and we all remember how bright the future looked for him…but let's face the facts: He's regressed. He's come to the realization that the only way for a guy his size to stay on the ice is to play less physical and with doing that he's turned into an average at best defender. He can play better, but in doing so, he's going to risk another injury. Basically the Blues made a $14.4m bet that he'll play up to his potential AND stay healthy. Seems like a bad bet to me.
The only real positive move was to dump Christian Backman's contract….and they got a decent return (a 4th round pick). Basically that will save them 2.3m in cap room for next season.
So where do they go from here?
First, they have to get younger and cheaper. The current Blues are the 12th oldest team in the NHL. For a team seriously looking at a 3rd top 10 pick in as many seasons, that's completely unacceptable. They need to play the kids as much as possible now. Best case is that they all click and start winning and land the Blues in the playoffs. The worst case is they learn the NHL from the school of hard knocks and the Blues stink up the joint….and they end up drafting higher in a very good draft.
Even after saving that 2.3m in cap room , the Blues are still in the middle of the road as far as cap room goes. Teams like San Jose, Pittsburgh, Washington, and Nashville have much more cap room than the Blues. The Blues need to seriously try to shed some unproductive big salaries in the offseason (hello, Jay McKee and Keith Tkachuk)…and NOT spend the money right now. Save it for when they're ready for a real cup run.
They also need to seriously look at replacing Larry Pleau. With all due respect to him and his dedication to the Blues, he's completely incapable of driving for the deals necessary to build a juggernaut while staying under the cap. While this may sound callous in the face of his current difficult family life, it's time to move on. Perhaps he can get a "promotion" or something of the like. There is a candidate out there that is exactly what the Blues need right now.
Brian Burke of the Anaheim Ducks is done with his current contract at season's end and has already been linked to perhaps looking to take the Leafs job. While there would be no better place in the NHL to succeed and win the cup than the Leafs, as a GM, I would hesitate to take a job where your best players all have no-trade clauses and refuse to move, even when it's what's best for the franchise. I wonder what kind of relationship Burke has with John Davidson….
Pythagorean update
I ran the Pythagorean numbers again and added another projection to estimate remaining performance. I used current points and based the remaining games on the adjusted Pythagorean formula. I will call this the "Standings Adjusted Calculation" or SAC…and found some interesting differences.
-In the original adjusted formula, the Blues are on pace to finish with the 7th worst record in the NHL. In the SAC, the Blues are on pace to finish 9th.
-In the adjusted formula, LA (despite being in last place for most of the year), are actually on pace to finish with only the 4th worst record. In the SAC, they are last.
-In the adjusted formula, the Blues finish with 82 points…10 points out of last place, but only 4 points out of a top 3 pick. In the SAC, the Blues finish with 85 points, 12 points out of last place, and 8 points out of 3rd.
A Great Website
If you're looking for NHL salary cap information, check out
http://nhlnumbers.com. It's a great source of information.
Forum 
General Category
