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Down the Stretch They Come... |
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Written by BringBackZezel
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Sunday, 15 March 2009 |
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With only 13 games to go, the Blues stand one point out of 8th place in the Western Conference standings. Let's take a closer look at the remaining schedule to judge how close the Blues are to making the playoffs.
The best place to start looking is of course the standings. Here are the standings of the teams currently ranked 6-12 in the Western Conference...which are the only teams in my judgement that are still realistically alive in the playoff push:
| Rank |
Team |
GR |
W |
PTS |
FSP |
| 6 |
Columbus |
12 |
36 |
78 |
91.24 |
| 7 |
Dallas |
13 |
33 |
74 |
87.65 |
| 8 |
Nashville |
13 |
34 |
73 |
86.38 |
| 9 |
Edmonton |
14 |
32 |
73 |
87.21 |
| 10 |
St. Louis |
13 |
32 |
72 |
85.77 |
| 11 |
Minnesota |
13 |
32 |
72 |
86.91 |
| 12 |
Anaheim |
14 |
32 |
70 |
84.81 |
From the Full Season Projection column, you'll notice that Edmonton and Dallas are currently on pace to finish the season tied for 7th place with 87 points. You'll also notice that St. Louis is tied with Minnesota and only 1 point behind Nashville and Edmonton for 8th place, but Edmonton has a game in hand and Nashville has 2 more wins, which is the first tiebreaker for the NHL playoffs.
The second tiebreaker is head-to-head record based on points accumulated against teams, so let's see how the Blues fared against these teams:
| v. Anaheim |
2-7 |
| v. Columbus |
4-2 |
| v. Dallas |
6-0 |
| v. Edmonton |
1-5 |
| v. Minnesota |
6-2 |
| v. Nashville |
10-6 |
(points for-points against)
This means that the Blues currently hold the secondary tiebreaker against Columbus, Dallas, Minnesota, and Nashville, while they trail Anaheim and Edmonton.
Basically, one of the major hurdles the Blues face right now is that all teams currently in the playoffs currently have more wins than the Blues, so although the secondary tiebreaker looks pretty promising, it only matters if the Blues put more tallies in the W column. They need wins, and in looking at their remaining schedule and seeing how many borderline playoff teams they play, the need regulation wins desparately.
Here's the remaining schedule:
Tue, Mar 17 @ Edmonton
Thu, Mar 19 @ Vancouver
Fri, Mar 20 @ Calgary
Tue, Mar 24 LA Kings
Thu, Mar 26 Vancouver
Sat, Mar 28 Columbus
Sun, Mar 29 @ Columbus
Wed, Apr 1 @ Chicago
Thu, Apr 2 @ Detroit
Sat, Apr 4 @ Dallas
Tue, Apr 7 @ Phoenix
Fri, Apr 10 Columbus
Sun, Apr 12 @ Colorado
Of those games, the Blues have 3 "Should Wins" (LA, Phoenix, Colorado). They also have 5 games against what I would call "set playoff teams" (Detroit, Chicago, Calgary, Vancouver x2) The remaining 5 games are against "borderline playoff teams" (Edmonton, Dallas, Columbus x3).
The Full Season Projection numbers tell us that the playoff cut-off will be around 87 points...so for the Blues to make the playoffs (especially considering that they're tied or behing most other player contenders in wins) they Blues will need to shoot for at least 88 points. That's a record of 8-5 in their last 13, but with 5 of those coming against set playoff teams, then there is no room for error when it comes to the lower-ranked teams in the WC, nor the other 3 playoff contenders.
The Blues need wins and they need them in regulation. In all likelihood, they will need to win all three of the "should wins", take at least 2 from the "set playoff team" column, and hope that they can beat all three of the "borderline" teams.
It's an uphill battle, but soemthing that is possible if they take it game by game and don't let up.
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Last Updated ( Sunday, 15 March 2009 )
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